MDC’s Eddie Cross on the new Zim $
Posted by ZDN on December 3, 2009
Last week an aircraft arrived at Harare airport with tons of new local currency onboard. Officials tried to keep it secret but without success and we were called by people to say the consignment was at the airport. When this news found its way through the corridors in Harare speculation was widespread. The most frequently asked question was “why…”?
Printing a new currency simply did not make sense, who would accept the new currency? Banks are busy printing US$ denominated cheque books and do not accept deposits of Zimbabwe dollars in any of its iterations. The sudden re-introduction of a new Zim dollar would mean a rapid and possibly complete collapse of the already fragile economy – empty shops and no fuel. It ran the risk of provoking a national revolt and it was doubtful if the army or the police would accept the new currency. A violent reaction would be probable; certainly the people did not want to see a new local currency so soon after the 2008 collapse. Was the Mugabe faction intending to provoke civil unrest, so as to have a good excuse for violent repression?
After much speculation, only one logical explanation emerged – Zanu PF was contemplating a UDI from the region rather than go along with what they regard as political suicide. This made complete sense – they could fire the MDC leadership, appoint “caretaker Ministers” and simply go it alone. Issue the new currency and exile Mr. Tsvangirai. That is exactly what Ian Smith had done in 1965 in reaction to what the Rhodesian leadership regarded as unreasonable political demands by the international community.
But on reflection, even the crazies in Zanu (and there are many) would soon appreciate that Smith could only contemplate such a move, encouraged by regional support from neighbouring States, particularly South Africa. Zimbabwe is a land locked State and very dependent on its neighbours. It is now also an economic minnow – with a GDP today of less than Swaziland or Lesotho. A large army but poorly equipped and motivated. No major sponsors after China and other international States began to distance themselves from Zanu PF and its widely perceived rogue status.
Any talk of a UDI from the regional bloc would soon be heard in Pretoria and I have no doubt that it would be dealt with swiftly. So I do not expect to have to spend the next few weeks in a detention centre. I think the new currency has quietly gone into storage at the Reserve Bank and will not be heard of again. I would guess that after a tense two weeks, the negotiators would be in discussion this weekend to decide what to recommend on the way forward on the issues to the Party leadership.
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